Imperative to Respond

Excluding the migratory pressures that are exacerbated by climate change, the rise in global temperatures inherently present a formidable obstacle for populations that are most susceptible to its effects. In 2016, the hottest year on record (2020 is now tied for that position), heat waves reaching up to 70°C in Iraq shrunk the nation’s GDP by 10 to 20 %. The global average temperature has risen by about 1.1 °C since the 19^th century without any signs of it slowing down. If this trend continues, heat waves are not the only consequence of a warming climate, as we are also likely to see a global mean sea level rise between 1.8 and 4.6 meters by 2100. One estimate suggests that a rise in global mean sea level of 1.2 meters would threaten up to 4.6% of the world’s population, which equates to 363.4 million people based on the global population in 2021. For those living in island nations and low coastal zones, migration becomes a certainty. Additionally, the increase of CO2 being released into the atmosphere increases the amount of it being dissolved in the ocean. As more CO2 is dissolved the oceans become more acidic, which can be harmful for the phytoplankton that form the base of the world’s marine ecosystems that sustain fishing industries.

The imperative to respond does not only stem from the accelerating frequency and severity of climate change effects, but also the socioeconomic issues that will become worse as a result of these events. The social aspect is the problematic narratives surrounding climate refugees right now that serves to shift the focus away from the developed nations that contribute the most to climate change and onto the agency of the individual refugee, or even onto vulnerable populations that don’t have the means to protect themselves from climate change or other migratory drivers.

 The physical manifestation of these xenophobic narratives can be seen in border policies that weaponize climate to enact social control and maintain national interests. A good example would be the United States enactment of “prevention through deterrence” methods of border control in the early 1990’s. These policies, named Operation Gatekeeper and Operation Hold the Line, funneled migrants away from historically safer routes and into dangerous terrain and intense weather conditions that has ultimately caused a dramatic rise in migrant deaths since it’s implementation. Although the U.S. is a clear example, it is in no way the only country that uses climate to secure their borders. Without changes to the narratives surrounding refugees, the mindset of “holding the line” against a “surge” of immigrants will lead to more deaths as climate change continues to heighten the risk associated with transit as well as increase the volume of climate refugees subjected to said risk.

Weather events, such as hurricanes also pose an immediate threat to coastal and island nations that lack the infrastructure to mitigate it. Additionally, it is difficult to connect a single destructive weather event to climate change, yet it is widely accepted that hurricanes will increase in frequency and intensity as the Atlantic Ocean warms. One study suggests that hurricane Dean caused approximately $100 million US in damages to domestic and traditional crops in Jamaica. Without any additional investment into mitigation techniques, Jamaica is likely to suffer greater, and more frequent losses in their agricultural sector. Issues of food security in Jamaica are also being confronted as a result of relentless storms. Long term, this can increase the wealth gap between developed and developing nations. This positive feedback loop will increase the non-climate related migratory pressures that already exist.

With less ability to invest in mitigation and other preventative measures, migration will become more common. The time to intervene is now, since an extreme climate threatens to further disenfranchise the most vulnerable populations of the world. However, the imperative to respond is not just a timeline issue but an issue of social responsibility and environmental justice. The responsibility rests on the shoulders of developed countries to take the initiative in aiding other nations to protect themselves against further climate related harm.

Who takes responsibility for the climate refugees?
Bayes Ahmed
2018

This paper outlines the vicious cycle of oppression experienced within the developing world. Namely how global oppression has transitioned from colonial exploitation historically, to oppression from the consequences of extreme climatic events caused by the developed world. It then develops a model for resettling climate refugees in countries most responsible for their displacement.

One Step Forward, Two Steps Back? The Fading Contours of Injustice in Competing Discourses on Climate Migration
Giovanni Bettini, Sarah Nash and Giovanna Gioli
2017

Bettini and Gioli argue that the way in which climate migration has been conceptualized has transitioned from discussions of security and humanitarianism (refugees) to discourses surrounding development (voluntary migration / adaptation). This paper challenges the conceptualization of migration as a means of adaptation as it depoliticized the systemic inequality forcing migration in the first place. The new narrative transfers responsibility to the individual agency of those displaced rather than challenging the actors responsible in perpetuating displacement.

Vulnerabilities and Displacements : Adaptation and Mitigation to Climate Change as a New Development Mantra
Pablo Bose
2016

Bose argues that climate change mitigation efforts have the capacity to become displacement mechanisms in themselves. Using Bangladesh as an example, marginalized people can become seen as obstacles to mitigation efforts, thereby enabling forced displacement at the same scale of environmentally induced displacement.