Climate Change Displacement

From 2008 to 2017, climate and environmentally driven disasters have, on average, displaced 25.4 million people globally, per year. This statistic alone shows the severity of environmentally induced displacement, and it is widely accepted that this number is going to grow as the effects of climate change become more severe. The people displaced as a result of climate change are known as climate refugees or climate migrants and are now beginning to be recognized as such. Current international refugee organizations and legal frameworks struggle to define climate refugees and as such they are generally not protected under the same legislations that protect refugees fleeing conflicts or persecution. The difficulties of understanding what a climate refugee actually is stems from the complex interactions between underlying regional volatility and climate change itself. 

With so much uncertainty surrounding climate refugees, statistics and predictive models often vary greatly from source to source; however, almost all predict an increase in climate refugees as climate change worsens. Modest predictions speculate 25 million people being displaced by 2050, while the extreme predictions have estimated up to 700 million climate refugees in the same time frame. The general consensus seems to be closer to 200 million; however, these numbers reflect those directly displaced by climate change, not all affected by it.

The contribution to and impacts of climate change are not dispersed equally. The World Bank estimated in 2014 that the top 10 carbon emitting countries produce 69% of the world’s total CO2 emissions, while the top 20 are responsible for 82%. Global consumption patterns reveal that proportionately, industrialized countries have the greatest impact on global carbon emissions while the least developed countries contribute only small percentages. Yet these countries often face the most dire consequences as a result of climate change. 

Due to a variety of compounding factors, communities in vulnerable regions are already at their limit to adapt to climatic disasters. Besides the increases in isolated events like natural disasters, climate change can create more chronic effects such as rise in global sea levels, water scarcity, soil erosion, disappearance of habitable land, desertification, and collapsing of economically important ecosystems, which all serve to exacerbate existing migratory pressures. Bangladesh, for example, is almost entirely situated on the Ganges Delta, a geographic area that is mostly less than 12m above sea level. A global mean sea level rise of 1m is predicted to flood roughly 10% of its land, much of which is quality agricultural land. Bangladesh is positioned to lose a lot as a result of climate change, however it contributes only a small fraction of carbon dioxide emissions per capita annually compared to some of the worst offenders in developed nations. 

The injustices of climate change are evident; however, it is not just CO2 emissions that contribute to those injustices. Often in xenophobic rhetoric, climate and climate related disasters do not get factored into the reasons for migration, which leads to false narratives surrounding climate refugees. 

Western media is quick to highlight the events of migration without offering insight into the processes or causes. This dehumanizes immigrants and, in some cases, frames them as a menace or as a “natural disaster” in their own right, to be defended against. Even worse, climate has been weaponized in some cases to protect borders and deter migrants from entering countries. Countries that impose these aggressive border policies are often the same ones that contribute the most to climate change. There is an immediate need to respond, as the effects of climate change are likely to increase the harm associated with these violent border policies.

Predicted climate change outcomes are varied, and the predictions for the number of those being displaced in the near future due to climate change are even more so. This leaves the future of climate refugees highly uncertain; however, there are still solutions being developed. Some experts call for the worst carbon emission offenders to accept climate refugees at a higher rate than other, more sustainable countries. Others claim that the solution is to tackle climate change head on by lowering emissions, or at least equipping susceptible countries with the means to mitigate the damage of a changing climate and the severe environmental disasters that come with it. While resilience building and mitigation efforts will play a role in stemming the tide, migration as a result of climate change is certain.

There are currently trends towards climate change mitigation, as well as work being done on incorporating climate refugees into international legal frameworks concerning displacement. The efficacy of all the solutions presented in this topic are predicated on the ability of the international community, specifically developed nations, to acknowledge and respond to the enduring colonial structures that maintain the inequalities between nations or populations. Without some form of reconciliation it is unlikely that climate justice can truly be served. Although mostly theoretical and in their infancy, these solutions provide a silver lining in the movement towards a more comprehensive climate refugee regime.